Draft Proposal

Disaster/Emergency Preparedness Activity

Palo Alto Neighborhoods (PAN)
Author: Doug Moran and ...
2006-April-16

Purpose of this Document

Introduction

The focus of this activity should be at the neighborhood and community level, reaching up to the City government and down to multi-family groups.

  1. Recognize that a large proportion of the community will not be prepared to survive on their own for 72-hours.
  2. Recognize that there are many opportunities for emergency preparation and response that are not accessible to individual families.

I am going to use military analogies because war is an inherently chaotic situation, similar to emergencies and disasters. Additional, the analyses of successes and failures is vastly superior to what is found for corporate business. Since many of the professional emergency responders have military experience, the analogies and terminology may be useful. However, the use of analogies can impede discussions when some participants take them further than intended.
Caveat: I do not have a military background, but have spent a lot of time dealing with people who do. I see this as an advantage - I know enough to be able to extract some of the useful lessons without being overcommitted to the approach

I am breaking the problem down into four areas

  1. Planning
  2. Training
  3. Command & Control, Communications, and Intelligence (C3I)
  4. Logistics

Following earlier discussions on terminology, I will use disaster to apply to regional event that substantially disrupts much of the infrastructure, with the primary local example being a major earthquake. In contrast, an emergency is a much more limited event, such as flooding, a toxic release, or a large scale police event such as a dangerous person or animal. Because emergencies are limited in both time and area affected, the portions of Training and Logistics dealt with in this document are largely irrelevant: The emergency will be over before these are useful, and unaffected areas nearby can provide the needed skilled manpower and supplies.

A major constraint in preparing for a disaster is that equipment and procedures used only during a disaster have a very high failure rate

Lesson: Leverage things in everyday usage, and carefully consider whether special equipment and procedures are worth investing in.

Excluded

Family/Individual Preparation

There are existing organizations focusing on "Be prepared to on your own for 72 hours." There is no reason to become yet-another such organization, especially since such efforts are beyond the point of diminishing returns: They have already reached most of the people that are likely to be receptive. Despite the resources continuing to be poured into this activity, surveys show little change in the number of families that have taken these measures.

The argument that After Katrina, people will understand the importance of being prepared demonstrates an obliviousness to history. The very same statement was made after the Loma Prieta and Kobe earthquakes and after hurricanes Andrew (1992), Charley-Frances-Ivan (2004), Hugo (1989), etc.

CERT Activities

CERTs have their own organization and should conduct CERT business and discussions within that framework. They should not try to usurp these meetings and activities.

However, it is appropriate to discuss the structuring of tasks to be a better fit with what the CERTs are trained to do.
Caveat: We should not expect there to be an active CERT response in all sections of the city.

Phases: Prevention and Recovery

The terminology being used by Palo Alto for the phases of dealing with disasters is:

  1. Prevention
  2. Preparation
  3. Response
  4. Recovery
Unless someone can convincing identify that the neighborhood associations have some special capabilities or resources to apply to the Prevention and Recovery phases, we should focus our efforts on the remaining phases: Preparation and Response.

Planning

My favorite quote on planning comes from General Dwight Eisenhower about the preparations for D-Day: "Plans are useless, but planning is essential." This is a pithier summary of the advice of great strategist Moltke the Elder, Prussian Chief of the General Staff 1857-1888, that has been overly condensed as "No plan survives first contact with the enemy." Eisenhower—echoing Moltke—explained that intensively working through many different plans, and especially what could go wrong, allowed them to effectively adapt as problems arose: They knew which problems were critical, and which fixes were likely to be successful.

Our effort does not have the resources to engage in this sort of intensive planning effort. However, one way to acknowledge this lesson is to avoid the trap of putting too much effort and faith into "the plan." Instead, focus on having mini-plans (modules of a larger plan) that have maximum impact.

Action items:

  1. Identify high-impact modules.
  2. Identify the "Who will be doing what with which resources to whom."

Training

The current US military is not a good analogy — it is based on extensively and continuing training (troops on peace-keeping deployments suffer declining readiness). The better analogy goes back to World Wars I and II, which involved mass mobilizations. Various military historians ascribe German successes in the early period of these wars to the substantial superiority of their field manuals. These reference books provided "good enough" solutions to a wide range of key problems in a compact, usable format. Paraphrasing one of those historians (Keegan?), they kept enough of the quickly trained soldiers and junior officers alive long enough to acquire the experience and judgment to make more sophisticated decisions.

Training for disasters is an extreme version of this. Because disasters occur so infrequently, you need to assume that few people will have any training before the incident. During disaster response, some people will be able to engage in on-the-spot "book learning," but that most will learn indirectly.

It is critical to have "cheat sheets" for people to take with them: Trainees are not going to be able to get enough repetitions to accurately remember the lessons, especially since they are likely to be in a psychological state not conducive to retention of detail. Additional, well-structured notes will help them convey their new knowledge to additional people.

The requirements for most training is

Summary: designed for quickly scaling up skills in a distributed/disconnected environment.

Action items:

  1. Identify target skills for this type of training.
  2. Find good training materials for these tasks (literature search).
  3. Localize and otherwise customize individual chosen materials
  4. Integrate components (e.g., resolve incompatibilities, add pointers).
  5. Prepare for distribution after the disaster strikes.

Command&Control, Communications, Intelligence (C3I)

Command&Control (C2) involves pushing out decisions and taskings from headquarters to the people in the field. Intelligence involves pushing/pulling information about the situation in both directions - from the field to the decision-makers, and from the decision-makers to the field (providing context for the orders). Communications addresses not only speed and reliability of transmission, but issues including identity and authentication.

Around the mid-1980's, what had been three separate area were recognized as being so intertwined that they were increasingly treated as a unified whole.

C3I is critical to making effective use of your resources. In a war, the enemy's C3I is the primary target (first hit, and continuing high-priority target). Since your C3I is your enemy's primary target, you need to prepare for significant disruption.

In a disaster, the "enemy" is the event that has significantly damaged the local infrastructure. We should expect that it has badly damaged the normal communications network, that many of the decision-makers are unavailable (either victims or out of position), and that many of the emergency responders in the field are so overloaded with tasks that they cannot report back an adequate picture of overall conditions.

People new to this area often underestimate the difficult of data fusion - combining the various pieces of data from various sources to produce a composite description. For example, consider the simple case where the decision-maker receives two reports containing related statistics from two people in roughly the same area.

In the military, the result of such problems with incoming information (and lack thereof) is known as The Fog of War.

Ambiguity of terminology is another likely problem. The word "casualty" is an example. For some, this is a synonym for "fatality", for others it means people injured but not killed, and for yet others, it covers both injured and killed. Since it is unrealistic to try to instruct people about "correct" usage, reporting templates should be designed with an eye to reducing opportunities for such confusions.

In emergencies and disasters, people often forget to communicate. For example, during the 2004-May-17 mountain lion sighting in Palo Alto, the police forgot to activate the emergency alerting system until long into the incident. The closer the communication system (who communicates with whom about what) is to that which is used in more common situations (normal business, minor emergencies,...), the more likely it is to be used in a disaster.

Action items:

  1. Who - creating a resilient structure
  2. What, When - what information to send up, down and sideways (neither too little or too much)
  3. How - form for both transmission and easily incorporation by the receiver

Logistics

"The battle is decided by the quartermasters before the first shot is fired." (Erwin Rommel, WW2 German General) Logistics is not just about anticipating what supplies will be needed and acquiring them, but

It is such a big part of Planning, C3I and operations that it has been broken out as a separate specialty.

In a disaster, many of the needed supplies will already be present in the disaster zone. The problem is locating and recovering them and moving them to where they are needed. For example, much of the food in houses may go unused because they have no way to cook it.

For the purposes of disaster preparation and response, I am proposing an unconventional scoping to include three categories:

Action items:

  1. Identify what shortages will impede effective response.
  2. Identify what can have disproportionate positive impact on response.
  3. Methods for locating and recovering in-area resources
  4. Methods to facilitate aid arriving from outside

Appendix A

These appendices provide a first level elaboration of the major categories.

Appendix A.1: Planning - Major Categories

Appendix A.2: Training - Major Categories

Appendix A3: C3I - Major Categories

Appendix A.4.1: Logistics - Supplies - Major Categories

  1. Water - Potable
  2. Water - Other
  3. Fuel
  4. Food
  5. Electrical Power
  6. Refrigeration
  7. Inventory control/Classified Ads - registry
  8. Finance - enabling a range of financial transactions so that people can purchase supplies
  9. Medical Supplies

Appendix A.4.2: Logistics - Facilities - Major Categories

I strongly disagree with keeping the planned locations of disaster facilities secret until after the disaster strikes on the reasoning that you don't want people going to a location that is damaged or otherwise not open. While this may be a good policy for regional facilities (such as the New Orleans Convention Center during Katrina), it doesn't seem to make sense for first-level facilities

Appendix A.4.3: Logistics - Services - Major Categories


Appendix B

These appendices provide a first level elaboration of the major categories.

Appendix B.3: Command&Control, Communications, Intelligence

Appendix B.3.2: C3I: Communications

HAM Radio

FRS/GMRS Radio

Background:

Actions:

FM Radio - KZSU

Status (tasking, reliability, ...)

Low Power FM (LPFM) Radio

Background: Provides means to broadcast to residents who have normal battery powered radios. Range of 2-4 miles (one station might cover all of Palo Alto). Transmitters are relatively cheap (web search suggests a range of $400-3000).

Problem: Congress limited LPFM to rural areas at the behest of the big radio corporations (including NPR). Those corporations "invested" millions to obtain this decision (the National Association of Broadcasters alone purchased $2.2M of "access" to Congress). This all but squashed the movement. However, Congress' decision was so transparently corrupt (its rationale had been repeatedly disproved) that there was concern that Congress might reverse itself. Consequently, the big radio corporations engaged in a variety of tactics to lock up spectrum (translator stations were a favorite ploy). A moratorium was imposed, but is about to expire.

Problem: FCC listing shows no available frequencies in the Palo Alto area.

Tiny reason for hope: During Katrina, LPFM demonstrated utility - a station was set up outside the Houston Astrodome to keep the evacuatees there informed.

Problem: Normal LPFM licenses require routine broadcasting (5 hours per day?). Quick search of documents did not reveal any mechanism for reserving, or preempting, a frequency during an emergency.

Opportunity??: One use of LPFM is for traffic information on highways. I would expect that these broadcasts would be very useful during a disaster, but they may be off the air during a disaster if they haven't been designed for survivability (power and downloading messages).

Resources

Appendix B.4.1.0: Supplies - Generic - Arranging access

Example of Problem: During the aftermath of Katrina, news crews filmed police breaking in to convenience stores. Some reports suggested the police were looting (New Orleans police had reputation of substantial corruption), while others speculated that the police were getting food and water for themselves or the community (legitimate action).

Law enforcement does have the right to seize resources during an emergency, but disorganized operations raise questions about whether such seizures are authorized. Maintaining the credibility of law enforcement is critical to maintaining order during a disaster.

Goal: Create and implement process for obtaining access during a disaster to supplies at local commercial establishments.
Criteria:

Potential Mechanism: Key Escrow for surrogate

In case disaster occurs when owner/employees not present, have keys available to designated surrogates.

Appendix B.4.1.1: Water - Potable

Appendix B.4.1.2: Water - Non-Potable

Purposes Sources

Appendix B.4.1.3: Fuel - recovering local storage

Gasoline and diesel needed for

Local filling stations have large underground tanks, but how to recover?

Appendix B.4.1.4a: Food - grocery stores, restaurants

During a disaster, there is lots of food in grocery stores and restaurants, and typically it goes unused, with perishable spoiling.

Develop a recovery plan

Lead: Fire Department? (add-on to fire safety inspections)

Appendix B.4.1.4b: Food - shipped in

Problem: Shipment of food from warehouses outside the disaster area can be delayed by lack of request to ship. Warehouses don't know


Lead: Coordination of City, Red Cross, Neighborhood and Grocery Store
Suggestions:

Appendix B.4.1.5: Refrigeration

Arrange for refrigerated storage

Appendix B.4.3.1: Locator Service

Problem: Evacuation plans for commercial buildings have specified rally points for the occupants so that to make it easier to determine if anyone was left inside. A similar mechanism would be very useful during disaster response. It would enable rescuers to prioritize their efforts on locations where there are most likely to be victims, by first using the known survivors (for elimination) and then the unaccounted-for.

Problem: Families that are separated spend a great deal of effort to re-unite, often taking serious risks and clogging roads needed for emergency vehicles. This movement can be reduced and delayed if people can reliably get "I'm all right" messages to each other.

Example: Katrina: The locator service was started much too late, and by then many people had been evacuated long distances and didn't get entered into the database until days, weeks or even months later.

Example: Agnes flood (1972): In an area with roughly half the population of Palo Alto (Corning NY), the local radio station spent a significant portion (one-third?) of its broadcast on announcements of where people were and on who was being sought. After a week, this started to taper off.

Problem: The advice for individual families to have an out-of-area contact to check in with does not help non-family members attempting to determine whether there is a need to search/rescue members of that family.

Issue: The Red Cross' system seems to be focused on people who have evacuated the disaster area, not those who have been displaced within the disaster area. This is probably part technology (power and network access) and partly staffing.

Suggestion: Survey forms for emergency preparation should ask for the out-of-area telephone contact number for the family, providing another source of information about survivors/victims. This may also have the side-effect of encouraging people to establish such a number.

Requirements:

Appendix B.4.3.2: Traffic Management

Problem: In a major disaster, we should expect to not have functioning traffic lights (electric power failure but damage to individual lights) plus having damage to major streets that requires detours.

Misleading experience: In the Loma Prieta earthquake, most of Palo Alto had electrical power restored by the next morning and only trivial damage to the local road network. Consequently, we didn't experience the chaos from this problem.

In a full fledged disaster, treating each intersection with a non-functioning traffic light as an all-way stop (as specified by California Vehicle Code) will not suffice - the cumulative delays will be overwhelming.

I believe that professional emergency responders are overly optimistic about clearing enough traffic off the roads to allow emergency responders to get through - There will be a massive number of people trying to get home and reunite with their families.

Additionally, the need for traffic control extends for days. If you have lost a significant portion of your major routes, the remaining ones are going to needed to move relief supplies and personnel into the areas. Remember that you can lose streets to many causes: damaged bridges/overpasses affect both the crossing road and the one being crossed, building collapse onto streets, broken water mains eroding streets, liquifaction, landslides, ...

Note: (2011) Current disaster plans designate El Camino Real as the first route to be cleared because it has the fewest number of over/under passes that could block the road.

Supplies needed

Appendix B.4.3.3: Psychological support

Experience: Agnes flood (1972): For months after the flood, whenever it even started to drizzle, small children would become panicked and hysterical. Giving tranquilizers to small children (4-10 years) became common, even though people were very uncomfortable about it.

Experience: Katrina (2005): Information now emerging (early 2006). Problems similar to earlier major disasters are being reported. Need to look for reports of successes, failures and lessons-learned of programs to reduce these problems.

Standing around with no news and nothing to do enforces the sense of isolation and helplessness created by the collapse of infrastructure.

Suggestion: Team with neighbors, friends, others

Appendix B.4.3.6: News/Rumor Control

Problem: Much of current printing technology assumes photocopying and photocopying requires substantial electric power. Alternate reproduction capabilities needed.

Requirements:

Appendix B.4.x: Finance

Ancient history (for inspiration): Agnes flood (1972), Corning NY: The area's dominant employer (Corning Glass Works) initially issued script. Within a few days, they had massive amounts of cash shipped in and started disbursing it to workers:

It took the banks, S&Ls and Credit Unions almost a week to start operating at minimal levels. Hardcopy documentation of account balances facilitated withdrawals, but personal recognition by tellers played a major role - in those days most transactions went through the tellers and this was a small city (20,000 in city itself, less than 10,000 in the surrounding hamlets and countryside). Experience was that the banks played only a secondary role - nearby areas had much harder times because their major employers were unprepared/unable to create an ad hoc payroll system.

Problem: Credit cards, debit cards, and ATMs are critically dependent on the telephone network (traditional, DSL, ...) to approve transactions, and the terminals that connect to the phone lines require electricity.

Requirements:

Appendix B.4.x: Medical Supplies

Large overlap with Food:

Prescription:

OTC medication: - sharing is more practical than for prescriptions

Other medical supplies

Appendix B.4.x: Liaison with National Guard

The National Guard is a critical portion of relief operations. However, because they are trained as soldiers, they can easily create the impression of an occupying force, especially when supplementing the police.

Personal experience, Agnes flood (1972): The National Guard helicopters arrived shortly after day break during the flood and were invaluable in rescuing trapped people, and National Guard truck convoys carrying supplies started arriving within a couple of days. However, National Guard "boots on the ground" didn't arrive until the end of the first week.

On the first day they were present, I was coming home from yet another full day working cleanup. I was stopped at a checkpoint three blocks from home by a soldier with his automatic rifle at the ready. He all but pointed the rifle at me, even though there had been no problems in the area and I was following his instructions. He barked commands and questions at me.

I left the checkpoint with real anger. Part of that was that I was a typical territorial male, a territoriality that becomes stronger during times of stress: He was a stranger on my turf, ordering me around like I was slime. Part of it was that he hadn't "paid his dues." I hadn't had a shower since the flood. My clothes were caked with mud and sweat. I hadn't had warm food - the food kitchens were too far from where I was working. My muscles ached. My arms were burned from holding filing cabinets while they were being cut open with a torch. And he was standing there in a clean uniform that looked to still have creases, hassling people who were doing the real recovery work. (Note: checkpoints do become advisable at roughly this point in a disaster, anticipating the descent of gawkers and crooks).

Television, Katrina (2005): Many of the pictures showed military units acting as if they were scouting hostile territory, even when moving through neighborhoods far from those where there had been gunfire. A group of four soldier in full body armor with their automatic rifles moving in a loose diamond formation (covering front, back and both sides) does not say "We're here to help."

Suggestions: Be aware of these tendencies and try to match National Guard to appropriate tasks. Assign local liaisons to significant groups.


Appendix C

These appendices provide outlines for documents.

Appendix C.x - Prolonging perishables

Appendix C.x - Damage Assessment

Appendix C.x - Work teams

Support for work teams operating outside their immediate neighborhood

Appendix C.x - Child Care

Appendix C.x - Entering damaged buildings (when necessary)

Appendix C.x - Intra-neighborhood communication